We live in times that can optimistically be called “exciting.” Over the next few years we will make decisions as individuals that will dramatically affect our lives and our planet – indeed the very future of our civilization. Those decisions depend crucially on our values, ethics and culture. Those decisions will inevitably be affected by multiple stakeholders often with conflicting values. Mathematical modeling and science can help in two ways:
- By informing our decisions. This is the subject of the first act. Mathematical modeling and science can help us understand the consequences of our decisions and can provide us with new possible choices – for example, new ways of producing energy without the consequences of burning fossil fuels.
- By studying how we build understanding and how we make decisions. This is the subject of this, our second scene.
We begin with the figure below.
This figure uses the COVID-19 pandemic as a setting in which to look at decision-making.
In the center we see the modeling triangle representing the role of modeling and science in informing decisions and providing choices.
Surrounding the triangle we see a number of different goals. Mathematically, we measure progress against these goals by metrics. These goals are often conflicting. The very worst situation is a zero-sum conflict. For example, keeping gyms open might conflict with the goal of lowering the rate at which COVID-19 spreads. One of the most important contributions of modeling and science is finding options that avoid this zero-sum standoff – for example, during the pandemic some physical fitness instructors worked with customers online.
On the right side we see some of the stakeholders who are affected by the decisions we make and who try to influence those decisions.
Pundits and politicians often use the phrase “follow the science” but science alone is not sufficient. The decisions we make will depend critically on our values, ethics and culture, which determine the weights we give to different goals. As modelers we must study multiple goals (metrics) and analyze how different choices will impact different metrics and, mosey importantly, we must seek to break the zero-sum standoff wherever possible.
Before going onto the five scenes of this Act, take a few minutes in your group for the following exercise.
Setting: Over the next few years we will decide both as individuals and as a civilization how we want to use the combination of artificial intelligence and robotics.
Action: List some of the goals we might have. Then list some of the stakeholders. Discuss how our values, culture and ethics might influence the weights we give to different goals. Discuss the weights that different stakeholders might give to different goals.
Act II
Just Add Math 